Estimación de infecciones indocumentadas de Covid-19 en Cuba a través de un método híbrido mecano-estadístico
Abstract
En el presente trabajo, adaptamos el método híbrido mecano-estadístico para estimar el número total de infecciones de Covid-19 no documentadas en Cuba. Este esquema se basa en la estimación de máxima verosimilitud de los parámetros de un modelo tipo SIR para la población infectada, suponiendo que el proceso de detección se ajusta a un ensayo de Bernoulli. Nuestras estimaciones muestran que: (a) el 60% de las infecciones fueron indocumentadas, (b) la epidemia real detrás de los datos alcanzó el acme diez díasantes de lo que sugieren los reportes, y (c) el número reproductivo se anula rápidamente luego de 80 días de
epidemia.
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