Una Aplicación del Delphi de Nube en la Percepción Subjetiva del Pico de la COVID-19
Abstract
El método Delphi tiene su origen en el campo de la prospectiva, pero su uso se ha extendido a otros ámbitos durante los últimos años. Una de las mejoras para disminuir las deficiencias metodológicas y epistémicas de este método, implica la consideración de modelos difusos en la percepción del panel, junto a elementos de incertidumbre/aleatoriedad. El Delphi de Nube trata de conciliar ambos aspectos. En el presente trabajo, se muestra una aplicación de este enfoque en la percepción subjetiva de un panel de conformación heterogénea, acerca del posicionamiento del pico en la COVID-19 en Cuba. Los resultados se comparan con un modelo de distribución gausiano bimodal.Downloads
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